supercell

I had delayed my chasecation from May into the middle of June as CFS forecasts showed an unusual lull in severe activity during peak season, but finally the second week of June looked like decent chances for severe weather throughout the week including a potentially significant day on the High […]

May 26th and 27th looked like a couple of opportunities for some storm chasing in the High Plains. The 26th looked like a decent upslope shot in Eastern Colorado while the following day looked much more potent, but looked like it could transpire across unfavorable chasing terrain in Eastern Kansas, […]

May 18th presented the first high risk in the Central Kansas region in five years. At the surface, a low pressure over southeastern Colorado was forecast to drift east along a warm front through Central Kansas while a dryline sharpened throughout the day from Western Kansas down into Texas. Rich […]

May 16th featured a deep trough over New Mexico with a lead shortwave that was expected to overspread the Central and Southern Plains during the afternoon. Mid to upper 60° dewpoints were streaming north into the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma which would lend to afternoon MLCAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/Kg. […]

April 15th featured mostly westerly flow at 500mb across the Central Plains while a cold front was expected to migrate southward through Kansas. The intersection of this and a dryline was the focal point for severe weather for this day. The initial 13z SPC outlook placed a 2% tornado risk […]